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Will lenders lend on run-rate, pro forma or projected EBITDA?

Borrowers present the EBITDA they expect. Lenders size the loan on the EBITDA that has already happened, plus whatever adjustments the documents prove. The gap between the two is often the gap between the loan you asked for and the loan you get.
Written by the Transparent underwriting desk · Updated
Quick answer

Lenders size loans on trailing EBITDA: the last twelve months, adjusted for items the documents show will not recur. They add an acquired company's own trailing earnings when its statements are verified, and they sometimes credit a run-rate change that is already visible in results and backed by a contract. Cost savings not yet achieved are usually capped, time-limited or left out of sizing altogether, and forecasts are used to test headroom, not to size debt. Every adjustment you want credited needs paper behind it. SBA sizes on historical results.

What lenders size on
Trailing twelve months, adjusted for documented one-time items
Acquired company's earnings
Added when its own statements are verified
Run-rate changes
Credited in part, when already in results and contracted
Synergies and cost savings
Capped, time-limited, or excluded from sizing
Projections
Test covenant headroom; rarely size the loan
SBA change of ownership from 1 October 2026
1.25x coverage on historical results

Six versions of the same company's EBITDA

The same business can honestly produce several EBITDA figures, each answering a different question. Lenders are not hostile to any of them. They simply give each a different weight, based on how much of it has already turned into cash and how much of it the documents can prove.

Treatment varies by lender; banks tend to sit at the conservative end and some private credit funds give more credit to documented pro forma items.
VersionWhat it measuresWhat proves itHow lenders usually treat it
Reported (trailing twelve months)What the statements show for the last twelve monthsP&L, balance sheet, tax returnsThe starting point for every loan
AdjustedReported, plus add-backs for owner costs, one-time and non-cash itemsInvoices, payroll records, settlement papersCredited item by item, where documented
Run-rateRecent results annualized, or a change not yet in a full year: a price increase, a new contract, a closed loss-making siteSigned contracts, months of results since the changeCredited in part, and only for changes already visible
Pro forma for an acquisitionCombined earnings as if an acquired company had been owned all yearThe target's own trailing statements, ideally a quality of earnings reportUsually credited; it is historical, just combined
Pro forma with synergiesThe above, plus cost savings expected from combiningActions taken, contracts signed, a planCapped, limited to a set period, or excluded from sizing
ProjectedNext year's forecastA budget and its assumptionsUsed to check headroom and repayment, not to size the loan

The key terms are defined in LTM and TTM, EBITDA add-backs and pro forma EBITDA. What follows is how lenders move from one to the next.

Why lenders size to what has already happened

A loan is repaid from cash the business actually produces. Historical earnings are evidence that the cash exists; a forecast is a claim that it will. When a lender sizes a loan at 2x or 3.5x EBITDA, every unit of EBITDA that does not arrive leaves two to three and a half units of debt with no earnings behind them. Crediting a forecast that misses is how a lender ends up with a loan the company cannot service in its first year.

That is also why the question is not whether an adjustment is reasonable, but whether it is proven. An owner's salary above market is reasonable to add back, and a lender will credit it once payroll records show what was paid and the model shows what a replacement will cost. A new customer is reasonable to annualize, and a lender will credit it once a signed contract and several months of invoices show the revenue is real and recurring. The same adjustments, asserted without paper, are left out.

Lenders do not argue with your forecast. They just do not lend on it.

An adjustment ladder, worked through

A company presents EBITDA of 1,850 to support a refinancing and a small acquisition. Here is how a cautious lender might rebuild it, in plain numbers:

Illustrative. Another lender might credit the savings in part, or all of the new contract.
LineBorrower's figureLender creditsWhy
Reported EBITDA, last twelve months800800Ties to the statements and tax returns
Owner salary above a market replacement150150Payroll records and a replacement cost in the model
One-time legal settlement5050Settlement agreement and invoices
Owner's personal expenses in the P&L500No itemized support; the ledger mixes business and personal costs
New customer contract, annualized10050Signed contract, but only a few months of invoices
Acquired company's trailing EBITDA300300The target's latest full-year statements, verified
Cost savings from combining the two1500Not yet achieved; left out of sizing
Forecast growth next year2500A projection
Total1,8501,350

At 3.5x EBITDA, the borrower's figure would support 6,475 of senior debt; the lender's supports 4,725. At a more conservative 2x, the gap narrows in absolute terms but not in proportion. A borrower who sized the transaction on 1,850 has a funding hole it has to fill with equity, seller paper or a smaller deal. One who expected 1,350 has no surprise. How much debt a business can carry shows how the leverage test and the coverage test combine once the figure is settled.

Caps and conditions on pro forma adjustments

Where lenders do credit pro forma items, particularly cost savings from an acquisition, the credit agreement usually fences them in. The common conditions are:

  • A cap. Credited savings are limited to a share of EBITDA, so no amount of projected savings can make up more than a set portion of the figure.
  • A time limit. The actions producing the savings must be taken, or expected to be realized, within a stated period after closing. Savings that never arrive drop out.
  • Supportability. The savings must be identifiable and factually supportable, and an officer usually certifies them.
  • No double counting. Once savings show up in actual results, the pro forma credit for them falls away.

There is a distinction borrowers often miss. The EBITDA used to size the loan and the EBITDA defined in the credit agreement to test covenants are not always the same. A lender may leave savings out of sizing and still allow them, capped, in the covenant definition, giving the company some room. The negotiated definition is covered in how EBITDA is defined in a credit agreement, and the room it creates in covenant headroom.

What counts as documentary support

AdjustmentEvidence lenders acceptWhat weakens it
Owner compensationPayroll records; the cost of a market replacement in the modelFamily members on payroll who also do real work
One-time expenseInvoices, a settlement agreement, an insurance claimThe same kind of one-time cost appearing every year
Discontinued product or closed siteLease termination, results by site or product lineShared overhead that did not go away with it
Price increaseCustomer notices, invoices at the new price, retention sinceA few months of data against a history of discounting
New contractThe signed contract, invoices to date, the customer's credit qualityA contract terminable on short notice
Acquired company's earningsIts own latest full-year statements and tax returns, a quality of earnings reportSeller-prepared figures that do not tie to returns
Cost savingsHeadcount changes already made, signed vendor contractsSavings that depend on future negotiations

Two points apply to all of them. First, the figures have to reconcile: an add-back from a P&L that does not tie to the tax returns starts from a number the lender does not trust; see when the seller's statements do not match the returns. Second, for acquisitions, lenders size on the target's latest full year of figures, never an older year. A quality of earnings report is the most efficient way to settle a long list of adjustments at once.

SBA's position: historical results

SBA lenders size 7(a) loans on historical cash flow. SBA requires debt service coverage of at least 1.15x, and 1.0x globally including the owners. From 1 October 2026, under SOP 50 10 8.1, a change of ownership must show 1.25x on historical results, financial due diligence is required on every change of ownership, and a quality of earnings report is required on acquisitions of $3 million or more excluding real estate. Documented add-backs are credited in SBA deals as in any other; forecast growth is not a substitute for coverage the business has already shown. Where a buyer's own salary replaces the seller's, lenders work that into the coverage figure; see the buyer's salary in acquisition coverage.

Presenting adjustments so they survive credit committee

The strongest files show the bridge from reported to adjusted EBITDA line by line, with the document behind each line named, and they separate what they expect a lender to credit from what they consider upside. That separation costs the borrower nothing. Credit committees trust a sponsor or owner who has already taken out the weak adjustments, and they look harder at every line of a file that has not.

Transparent's financing model carries that bridge, with the downside case beside it, and the underwriting memo explains each adjustment and its support; how we underwrite sets out the approach. Once the documents are in, the full lender package is built in a day. For acquisitions, the add-on case is covered in add-on acquisition financing, and the difference between the earnings measures small-business buyers meet is in SDE versus EBITDA.

Common questions

Will a lender lend on projected EBITDA?
Rarely for sizing. Lenders use projections to check that the company can repay and stay inside its covenants, but the loan amount is set on trailing results plus documented adjustments.
What is the difference between run-rate and pro forma EBITDA?
Run-rate EBITDA annualizes a recent change in the same business, such as a new contract or a price increase. Pro forma EBITDA restates earnings as if an acquisition or other transaction had happened at the start of the period, sometimes with expected cost savings added.
Do lenders credit acquisition synergies?
Some do, with a cap on how much of EBITDA they can make up, a time limit for achieving them and a requirement that they be supportable. Many lenders leave them out of sizing entirely and allow them only in the covenant definition.
Can I annualize a strong recent quarter?
Only if you can show the change is permanent, such as a signed contract or a price increase customers have accepted. A strong quarter in a seasonal business is not a run-rate, and lenders look at the same months in prior years.
Does SBA allow pro forma adjustments?
Documented add-backs, yes. But SBA loans are sized on historical cash flow, and from 1 October 2026 a change of ownership must show 1.25x coverage on historical results.
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